Our objectives and ability to meet them may not be entirely in our hands and we likely made some assumptions about the state of the world that allowed us to set the project expectations that we have. Assumptions may fall in any of the following categories: project team members, stakeholder interests, management support, technical issues, resource availability, related projects, supplier issues, customer expectations, political climate, and external factors. Again, the portion of the LogFrame matrix we are discussing, "What other conditions must exist?", is highlighted in gray.

Objectives	Success Measures	Verification	Assumptions
Goal
Purpose
Outcomes
Inputs

Three Steps for Managing Assumptions

Step 1: Identify Key Assumptions

To identify key assumptions we find ourselves back at brainstorming. Each level of the LogFrame has its own assumptions. The bottom row, which we have so far ignored, will contain precondition assumptions. If we do not have reasonable assurance that these assumptions can be met, then the project will not be started. Some questions from Schmidt (2009) to help you identity key assumptions:

What conditions must exist, and what factors must be true, for our if-then logic to be valid.
How must the world cooperate with us?
What else must happen for this to succeed?
What else should we assume?

Noah's Project Example:

Goal Level Assumption - No environmental catastrophes occur after the flood (e.g., tidal wave).

Step 2: Analyze and Test Them

The assumptions that are most important are those that are critical to the success of the project, but also have some chance of failure. Any assumptions that are completely unrealistic or not critical to the project can be ignored. Some questions to help identify important assumptions are (Schmidt 2009):

How important is this assumption to protect success or failure?
How valid or probable is this assumption? What are the odds that it is valid (or not)? Can we express it as a percentage? How do we know?
If the assumptions fail, what is the effect on the project? Does a failed assumption diminish accomplishment? Delay it? Destroy it?
What could cause this assumption not to be valid?

Once you have a list of assumptions, try to assess the level of risk posed by each.

Noah's Project Example:

Purpose Level Assumption - Rainfall stops in 40 days; water subsides in 20 days.

Step 3: Act on Them

Acting on assumptions means having a back up plan. At the outcomes level this is likely where you may need to have a contingency plan for the more ambitious parts of your project plan. Some things to consider from Schmidt (2009):

Is this a reasonable risk to take?
To what extent is it amenable to control? can we manage it? Influence and nudge it? Or only monitor it?
What are some ways we can influence the assumption?
What contingency plans might we put in place just in case the assumption proves wrong?
How can we design the project to minimize the impact of, or work around, the assumption?
Is this assumption under someone else's control?
How could we design the project to make this assumption moot or irrelevant?

Noah's Project Example:

Outcome Level Assumption - Rain will not start before six months.

Three Steps for Managing Assumptions

Step 1: Identify Key Assumptions

Step 2: Analyze and Test Them

Step 3: Act on Them

References